California saw its worst day for COVID-19 deaths on Thursday and the number of deaths will likely decline until reaching the single digits in early May, according to a widely cited prediction model.

The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, founded in 2007 with support from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the state of Washington, has released dynamic projections showing when deaths from COVID-19 will peak in each state. The model assumes social distancing continues until the end of May.

The model predicts that California saw its worst day on April 16, when 96 of its residents died from COVID-19. The model predicts New York also saw its worst day on April 16, when 837 of its residents died. Florida saw its worst day on April 2, when 77 residents died, and Texas will peak on April 19, when around 34 residents will die.
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